Research and Markets: Total Subscriber Accounts in Israel to Reach 10.2 Million in 2013 Says the 1Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013 Report

DUBLIN, Ireland-(Business Wire)-February 17, 2009 - Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/4ef00a/1q09_israel_mobile) has announced the addition of IE Market Research Corp.'s new report "1Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013: Pelephone to Gain Market Share from Cellcom and Partner from 2009 to 2013" to their offering.

The Mobile Operator Forecast on Israel provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Israel's wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Israel include Cellcom, Pelephone, Partner, and MIRS. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

The Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world's population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary:

Subscriber growth in Israel is slowing down +4.2% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q2008.

Negative ARPU growth for Cellcom and Pelephone
0.9% industry-average ARPU growth in 3Q2008

Israel's Data ARPU growth remains in double-digit positive territory Operator-wide Data ARPU grew by +19.3% (YoY) in 3Q2008. While this is down from the +29.3% Data ARPU growth registered in 3Q2007, it is still quite robust by international standards.

Partner registers the highest EBITDA margin and replaces Cellcom as the most profitable operator in 3Q.

So what is IEMR's Forecast? (We have revised our forecast in light of economic and financial sector events. We have also added quarterly forecasts going out to 2013.)

Total subscriber accounts in Israel to reach 10.2 million in 2013.

The largest operator will continue to be Cellcom; We forecast that Cellcom's subscriber base will increase from 3.24 million to 3.35 million over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.

Pelephone's market share will increase from 2009 to 2013 while those of Cellcom and Partner decrease. Our model is predicting that Cellcom's market share in Israel will decline from 34.4% in 2009 to 32.8% in 2013.

We expect ARPU declines to continue over the next five years. Our model predicts that ARPU declines in Israel will continue, and the industry-average ARPU will fall from ILS 141.52 per month in 2009 to ILS 136.32 in 2013. The overall decline is partly a result of Pelephone's aggressive price reductions.

We are forecasting improvements in EBITDA margins over the 2009-2013 period. We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 34.9% in 2009 to 37.4% in 2013.

Key Topics Covered:

MIRS (Only "Number of subscribers", "Subscriber growth", "Post-paid subscribers", "Post-paid subscriber growth", "Prepaid subscribers", "Prepaid subscriber growth", "Post-paid % of total subscribers", "Prepaid % of total subscribers", "Monthly ARPU", "ARPU growth", "Monthly voice ARPU", "Voice ARPU growth", "Share of total subscribers", "Share of service revenue", "YoY change in revenue share", "Service revenue", and "Service revenue growth" are available for this operator.)